shower worm

The Appetizer

Here's a little thought I had this morning in the shower. We're seeing the effects that an aging population is having on America. The closer the majority of our workforce gets to retirement, the less concerned that majority is about education and the more they focus on issues like security, but more importantly, affordable health care and the state of Medicare and Social Secuirty Income. There's also, as of late, a decided inability to accept change beyond superficial technological and disposable goods meant to make life easier. We've accepted technology as a Good Thing, but there is a lot of resistance to modifications to our social and infrastructures. Politicians play dirty pool, but with a 24 hour media service in every window, they get caught more. Few changes are demanded on top, and even less is pushed around down through the ranks. We're acutely aware of the repurcussions of an economy based on fossil fuels and military might, but the willingness to sacrifice even a little convenience for a much better future isn't there. Emotional blinders have gone up. The majority of the work force says things like, "I've done blahblahblah for near on 40 years, I think I deserve a little extravagance," and pumps 25 gallons more into their SUV, while the wife does the same with hers.

Now, China's competing with the rest of the world for economic superiority. The growth is based on an explosion of industrial production and capital investment with an unlimited supply of cheap labor. We see the cheap labor variable changing, but not rapidly. China's main hang up is its limited resources, both material and energy. But dig this report from renewableenergystocks.com:

"As Michael Liebreich, Co-Founder and CEO of New Energy Finance, a London based informational clean-energy index explains, "The drivers for the acceptance by China of renewable energy technology are twofold; they have an almost insatiable requirement for energy and therefore they will need not only fossil fuels but also renewable and clean energy in order to avoid a bottleneck to their economic development. The other side to it is that China sees renewable energy as a growth industry with considerable potential, one that they want to have a very strong position in."

As a growing world economy competes for the same oil and gas reserves, the benefits of investing in clean and self sustaining energy supplies has become evident to China. Tom Djokovich, CEO of XsunX, Inc. (OTC BB: XSNX) explains, "Investments in renewable technologies allows the Chinese to hedge energy costs and reduce dependency on fossil fuels in a competitive marketplace, while leveraging the growth potential of solar in the world marketplace. For XsunX, China's mandates to increase the use of BIPV technologies as part of an effort to make all buildings 'Green' represents a tremendous opportunity for our Power Glass® film technology in one of the largest and fastest growing commercial construction marketplaces."

In addition, Wieland Koonstra, CEO of GiraSolar, Legend Investment Holding's (OTC: LVCP) solar division describes, "The main driver for solar growth in China in my opinion is not only environmental or energy concerns; but also their well strategized market entree now that the market is ripe." GiraSolar is a beneficiary of China's activity in renewable energy as a recipient of Chinese exports in this area"

China doesn't have the "old money, old energy" hang ups we have as a society, because there isn't much old money invested in old energy there. Give em five to ten years and they'll be producing even cheaper goods because of an efficient energy market. That is provided oil continues its alpine climb. That all depends on several factors, not limited to our elections this year and in 08, but also including how the world handles Hamas, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and if any of the "grass roots" type movements in Iran and other Middle Eastern countries can do anything about dethroning the despots leading them. We won't even get into how our energy initiatives or those in Europe, Canada and Japan factor into things. Suffice it to say that if oil falls below $40 a barrel, we'll see even less of a "green" move than we're seeing now.

The Entree

What I was really thinking about, though, is this. We see the effects of an aging workforce here at home. We see our "hold" on the world slipping. But consider this. China still has a "one child" policy. If that policy stays, we'll see it be more effective as more of China's population shifts into the tighter controlled urban areas. That law of numbers says that for every two people reproducing in a marriage, only one person comes out of the equation. So, the size of their workforce will start to age and decrease rapidly as well. Granted, the Chinese workforce isn't going to peter out in one generation like ours is expected to. Also, a lack of old age entitlement programs means the government isn't spending an ever increasing amount caring for the elderly. Their society, I believe, still has an effective extended family sort of thing, so the elderly are cared for by their children.

Nonetheless, I'm interested to see how long the "one child" policy sticks around. It's not an economically viable standard, but if they stick to it, China's rise to the top might fall a bit short due to workforce alone. I put the next great war at about 2040. By then, our baby boomers will have returned to the heavens, leaving a much younger population shaking off the shackles of caring for a greater number of elderly (how much you wanna bet we don't extend the average lifespan much beyond what it is now over the next 20-30 years, simply because we'll have plenty of old people in that time, and won't have a need to conserve the ones we have.), while across the continents, China will be suffering the same fate we are now, faced with an aging workforce and sitting on a huge military industry with nothing to do but imperialise. We've already shown, thrice, what a young American work force itches to do in the face of imperialization.

I wonder how that's gonna affect MY retirement.